{"id":104,"date":"2025-04-05T07:59:55","date_gmt":"2025-04-05T00:59:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/pro-visioner.com\/pvk\/?p=104"},"modified":"2025-04-05T07:59:55","modified_gmt":"2025-04-05T00:59:55","slug":"fort-antiresession","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/pro-visioner.com\/pvk\/fort-antiresession\/","title":{"rendered":"Fort Antiresession"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

pro-visioner.com <\/a>– Fort Antiresession , Almost half of our state revenue is sucked up to pay debts. The role of tax as an anti-recession fortress is increasingly needed.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Recently Bloomberg, a global financial information provider, released survey results that Indonesia is included in the list of 15 countries at risk of recession. In the list, Indonesia is ranked 14th, just above India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In order, according to the survey, the 15 countries at risk of recession are Sri Lanka, New Zealand, South Korea, Japan, China, Hong Kong, Australia, Taiwan, Pakistan, Malaysia, Vietnam, Thailand, the Philippines, Indonesia and India.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Next thing we know, Sri Lanka, which ranks as the first country with a potential recession, collapses first, leaving political and security uncertainties. The South Asian country’s president and prime minister resigned, as Sri Lanka defaulted on its foreign debts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sri Lanka went bankrupt due to default on more than Rp 700 trillion in foreign debt and inflation of more than 50 percent. One of the debts is the debt to China which has accumulated to more than 5 billion US dollars (IDR 71.7 trillion), which was used for the construction of various infrastructure projects, including roads, airports and ports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

There are now power cuts, prices of basic necessities are skyrocketing, and fuel is scarce. Many hospitals have run out of essential medicines and supplies.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Its foreign exchange reserves fell to around USD $1.6 billion at the end of November. That’s only enough to pay for a few weeks’ worth of imports.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Most recently, the superpower United States has academically or technically entered into a recession as its economic growth has been minus in two consecutive quarters. Inflation is soaring, and the strongest indicator that they have fallen into recession is that many citizens have started to struggle to pay their bills due to the Federal Bank of the United States raising interest rates.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


What about Indonesia?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Let’s take a look at some key indicators<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Inflation rate
Based on data from the Central Statistics Agency (BPS), the inflation rate in Indonesia is 4.35 percent (yoy) and 3.19 percent (January-June 2022). This figure is drastically different from inflation in Sri Lanka, which has reached 50 percent and is even said to have the potential to reach 80 percent. This means that inflation in our country is still moderate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Trade balance (exports and imports)
Indonesia’s trade balance is in surplus due to the support of commodities whose prices are now increasing, namely coal and palm oil. Indeed, the commodities that are now very affected globally are food and energy commodities.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although we are an importer of petroleum, we are also a large exporter of palm oil and coal. Even the Non-Tax State Revenue from these two commodities has been able to make the realization of revenue in the APBN exceed the target of the budget set in 2022.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Balance of payments debt
Indonesia’s debt to gross domestic product (GDP) ratio is below 40 percent, which is relatively safe. However, our debt growth is higher than tax revenue growth. The composition of foreign loans is also quite large. These two things must be taken into consideration to see the ability to pay debts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Indonesia’s debt by the end of May 2022 reached IDR 7,002.24 trillion, equivalent to 38.88 percent of our GDP. The debt portion is dominated by Government Securities at 88.20 percent and 11.80 percent of loans from total debt.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Now let’s compare it with tax revenue up to the first semester of 2022. The government recorded the realization of state revenue of IDR 1,317.2 trillion in the first semester of 2022. This realization grew 48.5 percent compared to the same period last year (yoy) which amounted to IDR 887 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

State revenue as of the first semester of 2022 has reached 58.1 percent of the 2022 State Budget target. The state revenue target in this year’s APBN is IDR 1,846.1 trillion. Meanwhile, the realization of tax revenue amounted to IDR 868.3 trillion or increased by 55.7 percent yoy. Then, the realization of customs and excise revenue reached IDR 167.6 trillion, up 37.2 percent yoy from IDR 122 trillion. So, in total, tax revenue per semester I-2022 amounted to IDR 1,035.9 trillion, up 52.3 percent from last year’s period of IDR 680 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, in 2022 the government has prepared a budget (1) to pay current interest of IDR 405 trillion and (2) to pay principal installments that will mature in 2022, IDR 443 trillion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

With total payments in 2022 of IDR 843 trillion and a state revenue target in 2022 of 1,846 trillion, the ratio of debt payments to state revenue is 45 percent. This means that 45 percent of state revenue is drained to pay debts alone.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

What is there to be afraid of?<\/p>\n\n\n\n

One word, what is it? Stagflation. Stagflation is an economic condition where inflation is high, but economic growth is stagnant or even declining.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The prolonged Russia-Ukraine conflict continues to push up energy and food prices resulting in inflation in developed countries, including ours as prices increase, producers bear greater costs in production which makes them (producers) contract, reduce production. This is a major threat globally, causing stagflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And we have seen the prices of several commodities in our country rise, including the price of fuel, which receives the largest subsidy from the state budget. In an uncertain geopolitical situation, the risk of rising prices of vital commodities in our country such as fuel is predicted to occur again. And this will have a major impact on the economic conditions in our country.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The World Bank through the June 2022 edition of the Global Economic Prospects report warned of an economic recession accompanied by high inflation (stagflation), triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic plus the Russian and Ukrainian conflicts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n


For this reason, the government must be careful and careful in managing the economy by reallocating subsidies appropriately to reduce inflation.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Bank Indonesia has not increased its benchmark interest rate, keeping it at 3.5 percent to remain at a safe level.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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